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Author Topic: AUDL Chances of Success?  (Read 8020 times)
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Chris
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« on: November 22, 2011, 09:10:48 PM »

So from the other side of the world it's really hard to get an grasp on what the AUDL leagues chances are of being viable because it is so hard to know what both Josh Moore, and the individual franchise owners are working on a doing (communication with the public or even the ultimate community has been speratic and seems to vary greatly from club to club).

So I have been trying to think of the best way I could gauge its potential for success by comparing the only metric I have on the league at the moment to compare to other professional leagues - facebook likes.

Note: I know it's far from being a highly correlated indicator, but it's the best I could think of given that a sport's commercial success is generally dependant on the number of eyeballs it can get watching it and I figure facebook likes probably give a reasonable indicator of the leagues attractiveness to potential viewers.

So I jumped on facebook and had a looked the Hyundai A League's facebook page (Australia's pro soccer league) and it has 21,000 people that like it. So far the AUDL has a bit over 400.

Why did I use the Australian Soccer League, because it is newly form, all the players within the league are making a living playing soccer, but none of them would be making huge amounts of money (otherwise they'd be playing overseas).

Now from my perspective the idea that ultimate could be If they can get 10% of the interest that the A league has then it could be argued that the league is genuinely something of substance and there is potential for the league to be viable with the players expenses being paid. So I'd think they need at least 2,000 - 3,000 likes come the start of the league for there to be real potential for most players to be paid anything at some point in the future (maybe not season 1, but maybe season 2 or 3).

So they are on their way with 400, but they still need to find a lot of interested people...

I think the goal they had of getting 1000 likes by the end of the year is right on the money, if they don't hit this target I think the league isn't going to be the success that ultimate players dream it might be (ie no one is getting paid).

: P

It seems that they are getting about 5 - 10 likes each day, but that means they are unlikely to hit their 1000 likes by the end of the year unless either the league starts really promoting itself (which from my perspective it doesn't seem to be doing so well) or players get behind it and start plugging the hell out of it (but most top players still seem skeptical at this stage)...

What other metrics do you think we could use to gauge the league's potential for success?

For more information about the AUDL - http://www.theaudl.com

To help spread the word about the AUDL, "like" it @ http://www.facebook.com/pages/American-Ultimate-Disc-League/148314748537921
« Last Edit: November 22, 2011, 09:25:31 PM by Chris » Logged

Help spread the word about the AUDL - "like" it @ http://www.facebook.com/pages/AUDL/

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Chris
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2011, 09:20:59 PM »

For shits and giggles, I also had a quick look at the Major League Soccer facebook page. They had 277,000 likes.

And the 20th highest paid soccer player in the MLS is paid $426,000.

So if you are the 20th best player in the AUDL at the start of the second season (2013) and it has achieved 2700 likes on Facebook (1% of the MLS) then you will hopefully be able to negotiate yourself a salary of $4,200.

Tongue

Of course the top three players in the league make about $5,000,000 a year. So if you are one of the top three players in the AUDL you might be able to net yourself $50,000!
« Last Edit: November 22, 2011, 09:25:57 PM by Chris » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2011, 11:20:36 PM »

I just thought I'd update this thread because I like looking at stats to judge things.

I think the goal they had of getting 1000 likes by the end of the year is right on the money, if they don't hit this target I think the league isn't going to be the success that ultimate players dream it might be (ie no one is getting paid).
So over the last 4 weeks the AUDL and team owners have done quite well at promoting the league via Facebook, but the number of additional likes the league has received each day has remained in that 5 - 10 range for the most part. At present the AUDL fan page is now has 625 likes, which means it has been averaging about 8.5 likes day, not bad, but not going to get them to their 1000 likes by the end of the year.

With a little over 10 days to go, they'd need over 30 likes a day to make the goal of 1000 likes by the end of the year happen, and unless a lot of ultimate players get out there and spread the word about the AUDL via facebook I just don't think that's going to happen, though I could be wrong because there is a bit of buzz around the AUDL at the moment with talk about their expansion teams and marquee player signings.

I know I personally crated a facebook event and invited over 100 frisbee players to like the AUDL of which about 17 decided to support the league by clicking the like button, which was a little disappointing given that I figured more ultimate players would be supportive of the initiative.

That said, what has been encouraging is how many likes some of the individual team by themselves are getting:

Indianapolis AlleyCats - 557
Philadelphia Spinners - 226
Columbus Cranes - 148
River City Revolution - 147
Buffalo Hunters - 135
Connecticut Constitution - 46
Detroit Mechanix - 45

To help spread the word about the AUDL, "like" it @ http://www.facebook.com/pages/American-Ultimate-Disc-League/148314748537921
« Last Edit: December 21, 2011, 07:00:54 PM by Chris » Logged

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Chris
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2011, 09:22:05 PM »

I just checked up on the Major League Soccer likes, and they are now up to 280,500, which means they are getting about 125 likes a day, which is about 15 times more a day than AUDL is getting at this point, but they do have over 400 times more likes than AUDL, so whilst the MLS is growing faster than the AUDL relatively the AUDL is growing quite fast (which is to be expected given its a new league).

I also did some reading into Major League Lacrosse which is probably a better sport to compare the AUDL to given that it has one been around for awhile and it is trying to break into the mainstream (and struggling a bit as well).

The MLL presently has 18,884 likes and the AUDL presently has 690. Let's say that by April 2012, the MLL has 20,000 and the AUDL has 2,000 (I'm arguing the the AUDL will continue to grow at around 10 likes a day, and I have used 20,000 to make it a nice round figure).

Now in the MLL the entry level pay is around $6000, the average player makes $14,000 and top players make around $30,000.

So with the AUDL being 10% the size of the MLL the average player in the AUDL might hope to be able to make $1400 for the season (or $100 a game).

Can you tell I just like playing with numbers...

: )

The other interesting things is the number of likes of the individual MLL teams on facebook:

Denver Outlaws - 8131
Boston Cannons - 6152
Long Island Lizards - 4381
Chesapeake Bayhawks - 3112
Charlotte Hounds - 3060
Ohio Machine - 2046 (starting in 2012)
Rochester Rattlers - 1179
Hamilton Nationals - 76 (started in 2009)

So they have a total of 28130, versus the AUDL teams which have around 1300 (but none have begun playing).

« Last Edit: December 20, 2011, 01:00:28 AM by Chris » Logged

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« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2011, 08:05:19 PM »

So I thought I would update the Facebook likes stats to see what changes have occurred over the last few days. I have listed the current number of likes and placed the increase since last being measured in brackets, and I have also updated the lacrosse stats for comparisons sake:

AUDL - 871 (181)
USA Ultimate - 21,745
Ultimate Frisbee - 232,944
Ultimate - 116,934

Indianapolis AlleyCats - 581 (24)
RI Rampage - 260
Philadelphia Spinners - 257 (31)
Columbus Cranes - 169 (21)
River City Revolution - 152 (5)
Buffalo Hunters - 139 (4)
Detroit Mechanix - 56 (11)
Connecticut Constitution - 51 (5)
Total - 1665 (101)
Average - 208


Major League Lacrosse - 18,920 (36)
Lacrosse - 498,993

Denver Outlaws - 8,136 (5)
Boston Cannons - 6,156 (4)
Long Island Lizards - 4,392 (11)
Chesapeake Bayhawks - 3,117 (5)
Charlotte Hounds - 3,075 (15)
Ohio Machine - 2,061 (15)
Rochester Rattlers - 1,180 (1)
Total - 28,117 (56)
Average - 4,018

So it looks like over the last five days the AUDL has been averaging almost 50 likes a day, which is amazing progress. If they manage to keep that growth rate up between now and the beginning of the season they would have over 5000 likes by the start of the first games.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2011, 08:16:37 PM by Chris » Logged

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« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2011, 07:52:13 PM »

OK so it's Christmas holidays and I'm bored so I thought I'd update these stats.

AUDL - 951 (80)
USA Ultimate - 21,758 (13)
Ultimate Frisbee - 233,264 (320)
Ultimate - 116,970 (36)

Indianapolis AlleyCats - 594 (13)
RI Rampage - 265 (5)
Philadelphia Spinners - 268 (11)
Columbus Cranes - 174 (5)
River City Revolution - 201 (49)
Buffalo Hunters - 147 (Cool
Detroit Mechanix - 64 (Cool
Connecticut Constitution - 53 (2)
Total - 1766 (101)
Average - 221 (13)


Major League Lacrosse - 18943 (23)
US Lacrosse - 44,002
Lacrosse - 499,543 (550)

Denver Outlaws - 8150 (14)
Boston Cannons - 6161 (5)
Long Island Lizards - 4406 (14)
Chesapeake Bayhawks - 3121 (4)
Charlotte Hounds - 3096 (21)
Ohio Machine - 2077 (16)
Rochester Rattlers - 1198 (18)
Total - 28209 (92)
Average - 4030 (13)
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« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2012, 08:22:43 AM »

Time for an update:

AUDL - 1400 (449)
USA Ultimate - 21,885 (127)
Ultimate Frisbee - 234,421 (1157)
Ultimate - 117,158 (188)

Indianapolis AlleyCats - 632 (38 )
RI Rampage - 281 (16)
Philadelphia Spinners - 308 (40)
Columbus Cranes - 197 (23)
River City Revolution - 220 (19)
Buffalo Hunters - 237 (90)
Detroit Mechanix - 102 (38 )
Connecticut Constitution - 185 (132)
Total - 1766 2162 (396)
Average - 270 (49)


Major League Lacrosse - 19,286 (343)
US Lacrosse - 44,172 (170)
Lacrosse - 501,692 (2149)

Denver Outlaws - 8190 (40)
Boston Cannons - 6224 (63)
Long Island Lizards - 4452 (46)
Chesapeake Bayhawks - 3129 (8 )
Charlotte Hounds - 3133 (36)
Ohio Machine - 2130 (53)
Rochester Rattlers - 1214 (16)
Total - 28471 (262)
Average - 4066 (36)

Growth Rates:

AUDL - 36/day
USA Ultimate - 9/day
Ultimate Frisbee - 90/day
Ultimate - 14/day

Connecticut Constitution - 6.5/day
Buffalo Hunters - 4.70/day
Philadelphia Spinners - 3.8/day
Indianapolis AlleyCats - 3.5/day
River City Revolution - 3.4/day
Detroit Mechanix - 2.8/day
Columbus Cranes - 2.2/day
RI Rampage - 1.3/day


Major League Lacrosse - 22/day
Lacrosse - 164/day

Ohio Machine - 4.1/day
Charlotte Hounds - 3.6/day
Boston Cannons - 3.5/day
Long Island Lizards - 3.5/day
Denver Outlaws - 2.9/day
Rochester Rattlers - 1.7/day
Chesapeake Bayhawks - 0.8/day
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« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2012, 09:54:35 PM »

AUDL - 1,568 (168 )
USA Ultimate - 21,974 (89)
Ultimate Frisbee - 235,782 (1361)

Indianapolis AlleyCats - 665 (33)
Buffalo Hunters - 621 (384)
Detroit Mechanix - 427 (325)
Philadelphia Spinners - 371 (63)
RI Rampage - 295 (14)
River City Revolution - 221 (1)
Connecticut Constitution - 218 (33)
Columbus Cranes - 209 (12)

Total -  3,027 (865)
Average - 378 (108 )


Major League Lacrosse - 19,709 (423)
US Lacrosse - 44,444 (272)
Lacrosse - 505,198 (3506)

Denver Outlaws - 8283 (93)
Boston Cannons - 6436 (212)
Long Island Lizards - 4481 (29)
Charlotte Hounds - 3215 (82)
Chesapeake Bayhawks - 3136 (7)
Ohio Machine - 2177 (47)
Rochester Rattlers - 1232 (18 )

Total - 28,960 (482)
Average - 4,137 (71)
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« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2012, 03:07:04 PM »

Personally i want this to be as much as a success as the MLL at the least. But im on the fence because you could barely get over 100 people that doesnt play ultimate at some of the NexGen games. And most of the games alcohol goes hand in hand with the sport but im not sure how that would transfer over into the indoor game and how family-friendly it would be
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« Reply #9 on: January 22, 2012, 07:27:40 PM »

Personally i want this to be as much as a success as the MLL at the least. But im on the fence because you could barely get over 100 people that doesnt play ultimate at some of the NexGen games.
I don't know who you are referring to when you say "you couldn't" as I'm not a part of the AUDL, nor was the AUDL involved in NexGen.

I think the most important thing to realise is that NexGen wasn't really marketed well to people outside the ultimate community, and it was a "one time" event, which makes it hard to build a "following" and get non ultimate players involved in coming down and watching.


Quote
And most of the games alcohol goes hand in hand with the sport but im not sure how that would transfer over into the indoor game and how family-friendly it would be[/color]
I don't think the AUDL games are being played indoors, with the exception of the Detriot Mechanix which are using the silverdome stadium.
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« Reply #10 on: January 22, 2012, 07:52:44 PM »

when i say "you" i meant the NexGen...i thought the AUDL was an indoor ultimate league guess not thats sick
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« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2012, 02:58:25 AM »

Facebook Page        Old        New        Change
AUDL                   1,568       2,253         685
Ultimate Frisbee     235,782    244,365       8,583
         
AUDL Club Total    2,866        3,996        1,130
Average                358        500        141
         
            
Major League Lacrosse    19,709    20,716       1,007
Lacrosse                505,198    524,778       19,580
         
MLL Club Total        28,960     29,769     809
Average                4,137        4,253        116
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« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2012, 12:17:42 AM »

Facebook Page      Old      New      Change      % Change
AUDL                  2,976        6,222        3,246       52%
USA Ultimate       22,276        28,037        5,761       21%
Ultimate Frisbee        247,216        313,507        66,291       21%
                        
Indy AlleyCats       1,221        3,348        2,127       64%
Buffalo Hunters       754        1,278        524       41%
Philly Spinners       826        2,538        1,712       67%
CT Constitution        612        1,257        645       51%
Detroit Mechanix       739        1,917        1,178       61%
RI Rampage        410        1,013        603       60%
Columbus Cranes        867        1,644        777       47%
BG Revolution       303        993        690       69%
                        
Total                 5,732        13,988        8,256       59%
Average        717        1,749        1,032       59%
                        
                        
ML Lacrosse       21,128        29,471        8,343       28%
US Lacrosse       46,216        56,640        10,424       18%
Lacrosse       535,438        716,602        181,164       25%
                        
Denver Outlaws       8,427        10,971        2,544       23%
Boston Cannons       6,722        8,704        1,982       23%
LI Lizards               4,570        5,062        492       10%
Charlotte Hounds       3,475        5,267        1,792       34%
Chesapeake Bay       3,175        3,594        419       12%
Ohio Machine       2,419        3,819        1,400       37%
Roch Rattlers       1,271        1,600        329       21%
                        
Total              30,059        39,017        8,958       23%
Average        4,294        5,574        1,280       23%
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