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Author Topic: Nationals 2008  (Read 166347 times)
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gref
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« Reply #105 on: March 23, 2008, 09:00:23 AM »

Pool D looks ok... but just ok. B and C look hard. A looks good.

Now we just need some tipping...
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Tiger
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« Reply #106 on: March 23, 2008, 08:54:05 PM »

Of course Jonathan did say the board was supposed to be doing some revisions on the policy in light of the debacle last year, so who knows what that could bring.

Anyone care to share for those who haven't been playing very long what the debacle was?

T.
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rachelg
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« Reply #107 on: March 23, 2008, 11:46:32 PM »

Can't pinpoint the exact details - if you're really keen you can read the archives of the afda-hp list http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/afda-hp/messages/627?viscount=-30&l=1 (you need to be subscribed to read archives I think)

Started off with an issue because many of the Chilly & Ishtar & No,No,No players weren't at regionals (due to a frisbee wedding) and subsequently those teams didn't perform as well as might have been expected. This led to them getting a low seeding, which everyone knew was incorrect... anyway so some adjusts were made, then there was an appeal (which was in the 2 weeks prior to nats), which was reviewed and the same adjusts were used but using a different method... I think you need to read the email correspondence to truly appreciate how much we don't want to go through anything resembling that again.

On a slightly related matter, having been reading through last year's correspondence I had forgotten that pool structure for the women was slightly different as there was 14 teams. Seems like there may be 14 teams again this year as Factory Gong are looking unlikely? If so, and last year's pools were applied then the women's pools would actually be:


A
Wildcard X-Factor
Minx
Hills

B
Raging Wahine
Bush
Primal

C
Team Box
Honey
Factory Girls
Indies

D
Sugar Magnolias
Southside
Wildcard Jokers
Sultry

I much prefer the first option I posted! (with top 8 advancing instead of top 6)
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littletom
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« Reply #108 on: March 24, 2008, 08:01:59 PM »

Hey

You plan to organise a coach has inspired the canberra folk. Thats what we are doing. But my point is that Factory Gong girls are signing up to come on the bus, so I suspect they are coming to nationals. Its exciting that the girls division is almost reaching capacity!

I think the day will come where every pool is something like pool of death. Imagine one of our top teams being knocked out like Furious George was last UPA?

For those who may not be aware, Pools C and D are the 'cusp' pools, which mix the teams from 5-12 evenly, so that more teams get a more accurate shot at making the top eight.

To my knowledge, there hasn't been a similar number of players missing out on regionals and going on to strengthen teams at nationals, so I expect the seeding to be fairly stable this year. FU didn't have all its squad for regionals. Some people might grumble at HOS having the top seed but I they've earnt their place as top of the south regional and as we transition to a more formalised seeding structure there could be a couple of hiccups. I'm fairly confident the draw at nationals will sort out the results for next year.
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JdR
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« Reply #109 on: March 24, 2008, 08:23:20 PM »

Regarding seeding.

Its a personal view, but I think as the current system stays in place and stays largely the same from year to year, clubs and areas/associations with a longer term view will grow to value it (even as each year in the short term, people will think it incorrect that a weaker team viewed as weaker gets a slightly easier run at Nationals than a team viewed as stronger). 

So at Southern Regionals, teams that checked could've known that not only were they playing to qualify for Nationals, but what seeding at Nationals they were playing for (1st seed, then 8, 11, 14).  The more clearly people know what they are playing for, the better their knowledge before making decisions, and the greater their capacity to take the good and bad that comes with that.

I think people gained some more knowledge and experience this year also with the draws for Regionals being designed to be the first leg of Nationals.  The more people put this together in their heads, the clearly the picture should be.

I guess we're going through a shift in understanding here.  Seeding is now less about weighing teams in order of perceived strength (although it is still done in the lead-in to Regionals), but about reflecting strength between regions over time, and strength within a region as per tested tournament results.

The exciting thing is that we see potential champion teams a long way down the list - to me any of the first 10 teams on Rachel's list could take a medal home ...?
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Jangles
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« Reply #110 on: March 24, 2008, 09:45:14 PM »

Well you could always ditch the seeding system and have a random draw. In the end you have to win to come out on top so if your in the pool of death or the chump pool you still need to win. But that said each year teams will get stronger and qualification will become harder then you get 16 evenish teams and all pool become pools of death.

Hehe pool D looks like it will be fun. 3rd year in a row i end up with sublime in pool play.
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shoggy
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« Reply #111 on: March 25, 2008, 12:25:48 AM »

Given that regionals is really the 'first round of nationals' as JdR notes, with a known seeding outcome and draw structure for nationals, changing the seedings structure between regionals and nats is dangerous. Teams *could* deliberately lose games at regionals to ensure a particular finish and therefore seeding for nationals, with the intent of getting a preferred nats draw.
eg. Fyshwick United *could* have thrown the 2v3 game at regionals with I-Beam to ensure an overall 4th seed, and a pool game with HoS to claim #1 seed - a move they *might* consider 'preferable'. If then NZ were to be moved to the top 4 seeding after regionals, a possibility, then Fyshwick would be bumped to 5th seeds, and the less favourable cusp C-pool, an outcome not predicted when they played I-Beam. We are only trying to determine seedings, not final places, so the accuracy is important but not critical. Otherwise we shouldn't bother and just crown HoS nat champs now. Surely we don't want that Wink

My point - I believe any alterations to the seeding structure (ie regional rankings) should happen before regionals or not at all. This doesn't alleviate the dilemma Rachg mentioned from last year. Last year was a twist of fate but results and therefore final seedings should ultimately be the responsibility of the individual teams who performed poorly at regionals due to player shortages, not the nationals draw-makers. (Who's to say another team didn't get the same wedding invites but turned them down to play regionals and gain a better seeding? I guess it was all dealt with in the appeals process, couldn't be bothered reading it.) Teams in these situations should work to their own fate and the luck of the draw goes to the other teams. Whereas structural seeding alterations like the amendment of the NZ team whose relative regional strength varies (with no true comparitive factoring) depending on whether they send a club team or a worlds team should occur before regionals. That way teams know the possible outcomes waiting for them after regionals.

Appeals against seedings should be limited to out-of-control reasons for incorrect seedings, not that 'your results were not a true reflection of reality' (like last year). Otherwise Manly could argue they had an off game and are actually much better than Fakulbee and deserve the wildcard spot more. Noone would accept that, so why accept other results as 'inaccurate'. There are too many shades of grey to be subjective about it.

Given we have cusp pools, if there is a team whose seeding is between 5 and 12, their seeding would have to be considered to be wrong and either actually 1-4 or 12-16 before any change in seeding has a real effect on the draw anyway!

And whilst I'm stirring the pot - as the strength and depth of the open division increases and the regional strengths are more firmly established, how much longer do we continue with the 'cusp pool' concept. Surely if the regions are seeded based on relative strengths, this cusp pool becomes irrelevant, does it not, due to the seedings being true? Are we designing the draw to give a better chance to the 9th seeded team of winning nats? Is the cusp pool here to stay?
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simmo
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« Reply #112 on: March 25, 2008, 01:49:22 AM »

eg. Fyshwick United *could* have thrown the 2v3 game at regionals with I-Beam to ensure an overall 4th seed, and a pool game with HoS to claim #1 seed - a move they *might* consider 'preferable'.
Y'know what? I did consider that a possibility when I heard FU lost their last two games  Tongue
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littletom
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« Reply #113 on: March 25, 2008, 02:12:47 AM »

Its all makes sense now!

Although Simmo, you can see my efforts of trying to throw the game if you have a look at photo of the month.

Mmmm, the merits of cusp pools, something to mull over on the drive home...
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simmo
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« Reply #114 on: March 25, 2008, 03:02:56 AM »

Although Simmo, you can see my efforts of trying to throw the game if you have a look at photo of the month.
Clearly you weren't in on the plan, but by the looks of the angle of the disc, the thrower was  Grin
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Chris
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« Reply #115 on: March 25, 2008, 09:30:31 AM »

I think the system is fairly sound and a few of the hiccups will be ironed out of the system in future Nationals.

Hopefully in the coming years the difference one or two players will make to competitive squads vying for positions at regionals shouldn't be "dramatic" to the point where it greatly effects seedings for Nationals. Plus I imagine with the growing strength in the other regions of Ultimate we also won't see Easterns picking up four of the top five seeds for too much longer as better showings of depth are put in by the Northern, Southern and Western regions - and also potentially seeing many of these regions looking to compete for the title, like Chilly have done, by clubs sending A teams. So there should be a much better spread of seeds amoungst regions.

As for the pools themselves, I also think Pool C looks like toughest of the lot, but Pool B doesn't look too generous either. Firestorm has split X/Y this year and Firestorm Zippo beat Thor 15 - 6 and beat The Pass 15 - 2, yet they are only seeded 15th, not to mention they were missing a couple of key players.

It should be a very interesting year indeed! I'm really starting to look forward to it.

While I'm posting I just thought I'd take the time to speculate a little on how I see things unfolding. I see Fakulti NZ making up the final - just a wild guess really. Also I don't know why Barefoot did so poorly at Regionals, but I'm expecting with their roster that they are going to feature in the top 3 with HoS, Sweet Chilly, Fyshwick and I-Beam making up 4-7, after that I'm just going to call it a free for all with both Firestorm teams, Sublime, Karma and Taipans fairing the best of em.
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Tiger
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« Reply #116 on: March 25, 2008, 07:12:19 PM »

Also I don't know why Barefoot did so poorly at Regionals

Quoth one Barefoot player, 'Turns out we are capable of playing like shit.'

I like that they lost. I think they needed a catastrophic regionals showing to lift their game for where it counts. It'd be good to see them reach their potential (i.e 1st).

T.
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Brettski
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« Reply #117 on: March 26, 2008, 06:46:42 AM »

Also I don't know why Barefoot did so poorly at Regionals

Quoth one Barefoot player, 'Turns out we are capable of playing like shit.'

I like that they lost. I think they needed a catastrophic regionals showing to lift their game for where it counts. It'd be good to see them reach their potential (i.e 1st).

T.

Traitor! I'm telling Kai
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Lex
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« Reply #118 on: March 26, 2008, 06:57:37 AM »


Quoth one Barefoot player, 'Turns out we are capable of playing like shit.'

I like that they lost. I think they needed a catastrophic regionals showing to lift their game for where it counts. It'd be good to see them reach their potential (i.e 1st).

T.

He obviously just knows what he is talking about Cheesy
Although pretty much at least 4 of our juniors (inc. me) are injured atm so it's a bit annoying.

-Alex
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Hammer from sash to monkey man. 16-11. It's all over. Just quietly, i'm smashed! Yeah chilly!
Yeah, I'd have to agree with Lex.
rachelg
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« Reply #119 on: April 03, 2008, 03:50:25 AM »

So men's pools have been switched up a bit which gives (assuming I have the seeding right!!):

Pool C   
1   Heads of State (S1)
4   Fyshwick United (E3)
13   Fakulbee (E7)
16   Thor/The Pass (N3)

Pool D
2   Fakulti (E1)
3   I-Beam (E2)
14   Hot Chilly (S4)
15   Firestorm Zippo (N2)

Pool E
5   Taipans (E4)
8   Sweet Chilly (S2)
9   Firestorm Troopers (N1)
12   Wollongong (E6)

Pool F
6   Sublime (W1)
7   Eastern Territories (NZ1)
10   Barefoot (E5)
11   Karma (S3)

Pool F is looking unpleasant...
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